The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic presents a major challenge in writing this letter. The pandemic is, without question, a global health crisis, but as it derails life and work for families everywhere, it has grown into a broader human tragedy. Governments have adopted varying degrees of social distancing and quarantine, measures which necessarily place extraordinary pressure on people and the economy. Nearly every American has embraced these unprecedented measures – for the benefit of our country and to save lives. Yet reliable information remains in short supply, primarily the number of people who may already have been exposed and have recovered, making it difficult to evaluate the risk to the overall population. Taken together, the health pandemic and the corresponding measures are unprecedented and have, by their very nature, inserted tremendous uncertainty into entire societies. 

Facing such widespread uncertainty, it is too easy to stop listening to one another. Statements like "there is no price too high to save a life" become irrefutable to some and hopelessly myopic to others. The same goes for arguments that "we need to consider everything at stake, not just COVID-19 deaths." This is the realm of straw men and pitchforks, where the most moral view of one's own position is set against the most cynical view of another's. We cannot go there. The more uncertainty we face, the more we need to hear each other.  

We need to be able to frankly and rationally discuss the choices and trade-offs that come next. While the isolation measures taken to date have been necessary to save lives, there is not a consensus that they will carry us out of this crisis. The good news is that the public is taking the steps required to “flatten the curve” of COVID-19 illness. However, according to medical experts, COVID-19 will not be fully and permanently controlled until we develop a vaccine. Therefore, we must be intelligent about effective social distancing and sanitation measures even as we begin to go back to work and gather socially. Will Cardinals fans fill Busch Stadium in 2020? Maybe, maybe not. That may well depend on the effectiveness of testing and therapeutic treatments. The most important thing to realize is that resuming the economy need not be an all or nothing proposition. It should be a gradual process, driven by the information and options that become available to us. Most importantly, it falls on each of us to have a plan which continues to protect our loved ones, especially those most vulnerable.    

America has been through many crises during my nearly four decades in this business. The lesson I’ve learned is that risk is omnipresent. I often say that I am most anxious when things appear relatively calm and it is hard to predict the next crisis. Such was my anxiety in late 2019. All seemed as if 2020 would be another year of relative calm. How quickly things change. 

 While we can learn from past crises and explain them all in retrospect, they will never feel normal – especially when they divert careers, delay life choices, or upend lives altogether. We do not yet know what the bounds of this pandemic will be, but looking forward over the next few decades, it is hardly prophetic to predict that there will be more disruptions to come. The world is not getting any simpler. As a society, we must be fundamentally prepared for the unknown. 

 As the CEO of Stifel, especially in chaotic and uncertain times like this, I am often asked whether one should sell stocks. While I would never predict the market here, I offer the following as a token of faith: As of this writing, the Dow index is approximately 24,000. My prediction is that the next 100% move in the Dow will be up. Or, said another way, the Dow will go to 48,000 before it goes to zero. 

There will be a time when this pandemic is behind us and people take back to the skies and the streets to dine, travel, and shop.  Until then, we will use our strength to contribute to a better outcome for those more directly affected, as individuals and businesses, nationally and locally. I am confident that the American people will get through this. 

Ron Kruszewski 

Chairman and CEO of Stifel Financial Corp.